USGS Professional Pages

## Thomas Parsons## Research GeophysicistContact Info## Short Biography
I conduct research aimed at improving our ability to forecast hazardous events like earthquakes and tsunamis. Specifically, I study how earthquakes trigger others, how crustal movements cause earthquake stresses, and how to convert geologic observations of earthquake and tsunami processes into quantitative forecasts of use to planners, insurers, and builders. Read Full Professional Summary ## PublicationsField, E. H., G. P. Biasi, P. Bird, T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, D. D. Jackson, K. M. Johnson, T. H. Jordan, C. Madden, A. J. Michael, K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, T. Parsons, P. M. Powers, B. E. Shaw, W. R. Thatcher, R. J. Weldon, and Y. Zeng (2015), Long-term, time-dependent probabilities for third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3),Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 105, p. 511-543, doi:10.1785/0120140093. [Download File]Parsons, T., M. Segou, and W. Marzocchi (2014), Invited Review: The global aftershock zone, Haeussler, P. J., T. Parsons, D. Finlayson, P. Hart, J. Chaytor, H. Ryan, H. Lee, K. Labay, A. Peterson, and L. Liberty (2014), New Imaging Of Submarine Landslides From The 1964 Earthquake Near Whittier, Alaska, And A Comparison To Failures In Other Alaskan Fjords, Parsons, T., and M. Segou (2014), Stress, distance, magnitude, and clustering influences on the success or failure of an aftershock forecast: the 2013 M=6.6 Lushan Earthquake and other examples, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2014), Undersampling power law size distributions: Effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards, Field, E. H., G. P. Biasi, P. Bird, T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, D. D. Jackson, K. M. Johnson, T. H. Jordan, C. Madden, A. J. Michael, K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, T. Parsons, P. M. Powers, B. E. Shaw, W. R. Thatcher, R. J. Weldon, and Y. Zeng (2014), Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The time-independent model, Parsons, T., E. L. Geist (2014), The 2010-2014.3 global earthquake rate increase, Segou, M, W. Ellsworth, and T. Parsons (2014) Stress transfer by the 2008 Mw 6.4 Achaia earthquake to the western Corinth Gulf and its relation with the 2010 Efpalio sequence, central Greece, Segou, M., and T. Parsons (2014), The stress shadow problem in physics-based aftershock forecasting: does incorporation of secondary stress changes help?, Parsons, T., E. L. Geist, H. F. Ryan, H. J. Lee, P. J. Haeussler, P. Lynett, P. E. Hart, R. Sliter, and E. Roland (2014), Source and progression of a submarine landslide and tsunami: the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake at Port Valdez, Parsons, T., M. Segou, V. Sevilgen, K. Milner, E. Field, S. Toda, and R. S. Stein (2014), Stress based aftershock forecasts made within 24 hours post-mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M=6.0 West Napa earthquake, Field, E. H., G. P. Biasi, P. Bird, T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, D. D. Jackson, K. M. Johnson, T. H. Jordan, C. Madden, A. J. Michael, K. R. Milner, M. T. Page, T. Parsons, P. M. Powers, B. E. Shaw, W. R. Thatcher, R. J. Weldon, and Y. Zeng (2013), Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The time-independent model, Segou, M., T. Parsons, and W. Ellsworth (2013), Comparative evaluation of physics-based and statistical forecasts in Northern California, Geist, E. L., J. D. Chaytor, T. Parsons, and U. ten Brink (2013), Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of dateable deposits, Milner, K. R., M. T. Page, E. H. Field, Biasi, G., T. Parsons, R. J. Weldon II, and T. E. Dawson (2013), Appendix J— fault-to-fault rupture probabilities, Parsons, T., K. M. Johnson, P. Bird, J.M. Bormann, T.E. Dawson, E.H. Field, W.C. Hammond, T.A. Herring, R. McCaffrey, Z.-K. Shen, W.R. Thatcher, R.J. Weldon II, and Y. Zeng (2013), Appendix C—Deformation models for UCERF3, Parsons, T., Y. Ogata, J. Zhuang, and E. L. Geist (2012), Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests, Parsons, T., J. O. Kaven, A. A. Velasco, and H. Gonzalez-Huizar (2012), Unraveling the apparent magnitude threshold of remote earthquake triggering using full wave-field surface wave simulation, Parsons, T. (2012), Paleoseismic interevent times interpreted for an unsegmented earthquake rupture forecast, Parsons, T., and E. L. Geist (2012) Were global M≥8.3 earthquake time intervals random between 1900-2011?, Parsons, T., R. Console, G. Falcone, M. Murru, and K. Yamashina (2012), Comparison of characteristic and Gutenberg-Richter models for time-dependent M≥7.9 earthquake probability in the Nankai-Tokai subduction zone, Japan, Parsons, T., E. H. Field, M. T. Page, and K. Milner (2012), Earthquake rupture connections on mapped California faults ranked by calculated static linking stresses, Parsons, T., and A. A. Velasco (2011), Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the main shock region, Parsons, T. and W. Thatcher (2011), Diffuse Pacific - North American plate boundary: 1000 km of dextral shear inferred from modeling GPS data, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2011), Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence, Parsons, T. (2011), No correlation between Anderson Reservoir stage level and underlying Calaveras fault seismicity despite calculated differential stress increases, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2010), Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence, International Symposium on Submarine Mass Movements and their Consequences, Book Series: Oppenheimer, D., W. Bakun, T. Parsons, R. Simpson, J. Boatwright, R. Uhrhammer (2010), The 2007 M5.4 Alum Rock Earthquake: Implications for Future Earthquakes on the Central and Southern Calaveras Fault, Parsons, T. (2010), Earthquake probability calculated from paleoseismic observations on the south Hayward fault, in Knudsen, K., Baldwin, J., Brocher, T. Burgmann, R., Craig, M., Cushing, D., Hellwig, P., Wiegers, M., and Wong, I., eds., Proceedings of the Third Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area, Gonzalez, F., E. Geist, C. E. Synolakis, D. Arcas, D. Bellomo, D. Carlton, T. Horning, B. Jaffe, J. Johnson, H. Mofjeld, J. Newman, T. Parsons, R. Peters, C. Peterson, G. Priest, V. V. Titov, A. Venturato, J. Weber, F. Wong, A. Yalciner (2009), Seaside, Oregon probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment, Nowack, R. L., T. Parsons, and A. Revil (2009), Editorial: Exploring New Frontiers with JGR-Solid Earth, Parsons, T., and A. A. Velasco (2009), On near-source earthquake triggering, Parsons, T. (2009), Lasting earthquake legacy, Thompson, G. A., and T. Parsons (2009), Can footwall unloading explain late Cenozoic uplift of the Sierra Nevada crest?, Field, E. H., T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, A. D. Frankel, V. Gupta, T. H. Jordan, T. Parsons, M. D. Petersen, R. S. Stein, R. J. Weldon II, and C. J. Wills (2009), The uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2), Parsons, T., and E. L. Geist (2009), Is there basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over Gutenberg-Richter distributions on individual faults in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?, Ganas, A., and T. Parsons (2009), 3-D model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2009), Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast, Geist, E. L., T. Parsons, U.S. ten Brink, and H. J. Lee (2009), Chapter 4: Tsunami Probability, in Parsons, T., and E. L. Geist (2008), Tsunami probability in the Caribbean region, Mallman, E. P., and T. Parsons (2008), A Global Search for Stress Shadows, Parsons, T. (2008), Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process, Ryan, H., T. Parsons, and R. Sliter (2008), Vertical tectonic deformation associated with the San Andreas fault zone offshore of San Francisco, California, Parsons, T. (2008), Monte Carlo method for determining earthquake recurrence parameters from short paleoseismic catalogs: Example calculations for California, Parsons, T., C. Ji, and E. Kirby (2008), Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin, Velasco, A. A., S. Hernandez, T. Parsons, and K. Pankow (2008), Global ubiquity of dynamic earthquake triggering, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2008), Distribution of tsunami inter-event times, Parsons, T. (2008), Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults, Mikhailov, V. O., T. Parsons, R. W. Simpson, E. P. Timoshkina, and C. Williams (2007), Why the Sacramento Delta Area Differs from Other Parts of the Great Valley: Numerical Modeling of Thermal Structure and Thermal Subsidence of Forearc Basins, Parsons, T. (2007), Forecast experiment: Do temporal and spatial b-value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M≥4.0 earthquakes?, Parsons, T. (2006), Parsons, T., G. A. Thompson, A. H. Cogbill (2006), Earthquake and volcano clustering via stress transfer at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, Parsons, T., R. S. Yeats, Y. Yagi, and A. Hussain (2006), Static stress change from the 8 October, 2005 M=7.6 Kashmir earthquake, Stein, R. S., S. Toda, T. Parsons, and E. Grunewald (2006), A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2006), Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards, Parsons, T. (2006), Tectonic stressing in California modeled from GPS observations, Geist, E. L., and T. Parsons (2005), Triggering of tsunamigenic aftershocks from large strike-slip earthquakes: analysis of the November 2000 New Ireland earthquake sequence, Parsons, T. (2005), Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations, Parsons, T. (2005), A hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquake triggering, Parsons, T., T. R. Bruns, R. Sliter (2005), Structure and mechanics of the San Gregorio-San Andreas fault junction, Parsons, T. (2004), Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey, Parsons, T., R. Sliter, E. L. Geist, R. C. Jachens, B. E. Jaffe, A. Foxgrover, P. E. Hart, and J. McCarthy (2003), Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault stepover, San Francisco Bay, California, Brocher, T. M., T. Parsons, A. M. Tréhu, R. S. Crosson, C. M. Snelson, and M. A. Fisher (2003), Seismic evidence for widespread serpentinized forearc upper mantle along the Cascadia Margin: Parsons, T. (2002), Nearly frictionless faulting from unclamping in long-term interaction models, Parsons, T. (2002), Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone, ten Brink, U. S., P. C. Molzer, M. A. Fisher, R. J. Blakely, R. C. Bucknam, T. Parsons, R. S. Crosson, and K. C. Creager (2002), Subsurface geometry and evolution of the Seattle Fault Zone and the Seattle Basin, Washington, Parsons, T. (2002), Post-1906 stress recovery of the San Andreas fault system from 3-D finite element analysis, Parsons, T., R. J. Blakely, and T. M. Brocher (2001), A simple algorithm for sequentially incorporating gravity observations in seismic traveltime tomography, Parsons, T., J. McCarthy, and G. A. Thompson (2001), Very different crustal response to extreme extension in the southern Basin and Range and Colorado Plateau transition, Parsons, T., and D. Dreger (2000), Static-stress impact of the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 M=7.1 Hector Mine earthquake, southern California, Geophysical Research Letters, v. 27, p. 1949-1952. [Download File] Hole, J. A., T. M. Brocher, S. L. Klemperer, T. Parsons, H. M. Benz, and K. P. Furlong (2000), Three-dimensional seismic velocity structure of the San Francisco Bay area, Parsons, T., S. Toda, R. S. Stein, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich (2000), Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation, Parsons, T., R. S. Stein, R. W. Simpson, and P. A. Reasenberg (1999), Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: a comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults, Parsons, T., and P. E. Hart (1999), Dipping San Andreas and Hayward faults revealed beneath San Francisco Bay, California, Parsons, T., R. E. Wells, E. Flueh, U. S. ten Brink, and M. A. Fisher (1999), Three-dimensional velocity structure of Siletzia and other accreted terranes in the Cascadia fore arc of Washington, Fisher, M. A., E. R. Flueh, D.W. Scholl, T. Parsons, R. E. Wells, A. Trehu, U. ten Brink, and C. S. Weaver (1999), Geologic processes of accretion: Cascadia subduction zone west of Washington State, Parsons, T. (1998), Seismic-reflection evidence that the Hayward fault extends into the lower crust of the San Francisco Bay area, California, Flueh, E., M. A. Fisher, J. Bialas, J. R. Childs, D. Klaeschen, N. Kukowski, T. Parsons, D. W. Scholl, U. ten Brink, A. M. Trehu, and N. Vidal (1998), New seismic images of the Cascadia subduction zone from Cruise SO108- ORWELL, Parsons, T., G. A. Thompson, and R. P. Smith (1998), More than one way to stretch: A tectonic model for extension along the plume track of the Yellowstone hotspot and adjacent Basin and Range Province, Parsons, T., A. M. Trehu, J. H. Luetgert, K. Miller, F. Killbride, R. E. Wells, M. A. Fisher, E. Flueh, U. S. ten Brink, and N. I. Christensen (1998), A new view into the Cascadia subduction zone and volcanic arc: Implications for earthquake hazards along the Washington margin, Parsons, T., and M. L. Zoback (1997), Three-dimensional upper crustal velocity structure beneath San Francisco Peninsula, California, Parsons, T., and J. McCarthy (1996), Crustal and upper mantle velocity structure of the Salton Trough, southeast California, Parsons, T., J. McCarthy, W. M. Kohler, C. J. Ammon, H. M. Benz, J. A. Hole, and E. E. Criley (1996), The crustal structure of the Colorado Plateau, Arizona: Application of new long-offset seismic data analysis techniques, Bohannon, R. G., and Parsons, T. (1995), Tectonic implications of post-30 Ma Pacific and North American relative plate motions, Parsons, T., Christensen, N. I., and Wilshire, H. G. (1995), Velocities of southern Basin and Range xenoliths: Insights on the nature of lower crustal reflectivity and composition, Parsons, T. (1995), The Basin and Range Province, in Parsons, T., and McCarthy, J. (1995), The active southwest margin of the Colorado Plateau: Uplift of mantle origin: McCarthy, J., and Parsons, T. (1994), Insights into the kinematic Cenozoic evolution of the Basin and Range-Colorado Plateau transition from coincident seismic refraction and reflection data, Parsons, T., Thompson, G. A., and Sleep, N. H. (1994), Mantle plume influence on the Neogene uplift and extension of the U.S. western Cordillera? Parsons, T., and Thompson, G. A. (1993), Does magmatism influence low-angle normal faulting? Parsons, T., Sleep, N. H., and Thompson, G. A. (1992), Host rock rheology controls on the emplacement of tabular intrusions: Implications for underplating of continental crust: Parsons, T., Howie, J. M., and Thompson, G. A. (1992), Seismic constraints on the nature of lower crustal reflectors beneath the extending southern transition zone of the Colorado Plateau, Arizona, Howie, J. M., Parsons, T., and Thompson, G. A. (1991), High-resolution P- and S-wave deep crustal imaging across the edge of the Colorado Plateau, USA: Increased reflectivity caused by initiating extension: in Continental Lithosphere: Deep Seismic Reflections, Volume 22, Meissner, R. et al., eds., Washington D.C., Parsons, T., and Thompson, G. A. (1991), The role of magma overpressure in suppressing earthquakes and topography: Worldwide examples:
## My Science Topics
## My USGS Science Strategy AreasA National Hazard, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program | ## Forecasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis## Contact Information345 Middlefield Road Menlo Park, CA 94025 tparsons@usgs.gov 650-329-5074 650-329-5299 - Fax Back to top |