Science Advisor for Risk Reduction, SAFRR ProjectContact Info
Dr. Lucile M. Jones has been a seismologist with the US Geological Survey and a Visiting Research Associate at the Seismological Laboratory of Caltech since 1983, and is currently the Senior Science Advisor for Risk Reduction in the Natural Hazards Mission Area, innovating the application of hazards science to increase the Nation's resilience to natural disasters.
Dr. Jones has authored over 90 papers on research seismology with primary interest in foreshocks and earthquake physics, especially in southern California. Dr. Jones received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Chinese Language and Literature, Magna Cum Laude, from Brown University in 1976 and a Ph. D. in geophysics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1981.
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PublicationsDettinger, M.D., Ralph, F.M., Hughes, M., Das, T., Neiman, P., Cox, D., Estes, G., Reynolds, D., Hartman, R., Cayan, D., and Jones, L., 2012, Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California: Natural Hazards, Volume 60, No. 3 1085-1111, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9894-5
Jones, L. M., & Benthien, M, 2012. Preparing for a “Big One”: The Great Southern California ShakeOut. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2), 575–595. doi:doi: 10.1193/1.3586819
Perry, S., Jones, L., & Cox, D., 2012. Developing a Scenario for Widespread Use: Best Practices, Lessons Learned. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2), 263–272. doi:doi: 10.1193/1.3574445
Porter, K., Jones, L., Cox, D., Goltz, J., Hudnut, K., Mileti, D., Perry, S., et al., 2012. The ShakeOut scenario: a hypothetical Mw7. 8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. Earthquake Spectra, 27(2), 239–261. doi:doi: 10.1193/1.3563624
American Red Cross Multi-Disciplinary Team, 2011. Report on the 2010 Chilean earthquake and tsunami response. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1053, vi, 59 p.; Appendices [Link]
Thomas H. Jordan and Lucile M. Jones, 2010, Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Some Thoughts on Why and How, Seismological Research Letters, July/August 2010, v. 81, p. 571-574, doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.4.571
1. Jones, L. M., and P. Molnar, 1976, Frequency of foreshocks, Nature, 62, 667-679.
2. Jones, L. M., and P. Molnar, 1979, Some characteristics of foreshocks and their possible relationship to earthquake prediction and premonitory slip on faults, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 3596-3608.
3. Jones, L. M., Q. Deng, and P. Jiang, 1980, The role of conjugate faults in the development and occurrence of earthquakes, Seismology and Geology, 2, 19-26, (in Chinese).
4. Jones, L. M., 1980, Cyclic loading of simulated fault gouge to large strains, J. Geophys. Res., 85, 1826-1832.
5. Xu, S. X., B. Q. Wang, L. M. Jones, X. F. Ma, and P. W. Shen, 1981, The Haicheng foreshock sequence and earthquake swarms – the use of foreshock sequences in earthquake prediction, Acta Seismological Sinica, 3, 1-10 (in Chinese).
6. Deng, Q. D., P. Jiang, L. M. Jones, and P. Molnar, 1981, A preliminary analysis of reported changes in ground water and anomalous animal behavior before the 4 February 1975 Haicheng earthquake, in Earthquake Prediction: An International Review, Maurice Ewing V. 4, Simpson, D. W., and P. G. Richards (eds), Amer. Geophys. Union, Washington, DC., 543-565.
7. Jones, L. M., The Mechanics of Faulting, Ph.D. Dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 120 pp., 1981.
8. Jones, L. M., B. Q. Wang, S. X. Xu, and T. J. Fitch, 1982, The foreshock sequence of the February 4, 1975, Haicheng earthquake (M=7.3), J. Geophys. Res., 87, 4575-4584.
9. Xu, S. X., B. Q. Wang, L. M. Jones, X. F. Ma, and P. W. Shen, 1982, The Haicheng foreshock sequence and earthquake swarms – the use of foreshock sequences in earthquake prediction, Tectonophysics, 85, 91-105.
10. Jones, L. M., 1984, Foreshocks (1966-1980) in the San Andreas System, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 74, 1361-1380.
11. Jones, L. M., W. B. Han, E. Hauksson, A. S. Jin, Y. G. Zhang, and Z. L. Luo, 1984, Focal mechanisms and aftershock locations of the Songpan earthquakes of August 1976 in Sichuan, China, J. Geophys. Res., 89, 7696-7707.
12. Wesnousky, S. G., L. M. Jones, Q. D. Deng, and C. H. Scholz, 1984, Historical seismicity and crustal deformation along the Ordos block, Northeast China, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 74, 1776-1784.
13. Shedlock, K. M., L. M. Jones and X. F. Ma, 1985, Determination of elastic wave velocity and relative hypocenter locations using refracted waves. II. Application to the Haicheng, China aftershock sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 75, 427-440.
14. Jones, L. M., 1985, Foreshocks and time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 75, 1669-1680.
15. Jones, L. M., 1985, Foreshocks and time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern California, in Minutes of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, ed. By C. F. Shearer, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 85-507.
16. Jones, L. M., 1985, Foreshocks and short-term earthquake hazard assessment at Parkfield, in Minutes of the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, July 26-27, 1985, ed. By C. F. Shearer, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 85-754.
17. Jones, L. M., and R. S. Dollar, 1986. Evidence for basin-and-range extensional tectonics in the Sierra Nevada: The Durrwood Meadows swarm, Tulare County, California (1983-1984), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 76, 439-461.
18. Norris, R., C. Johnson, L. Jones, and K. Hutton, 1986, The Southern California Network Bulletin, January-June 1985, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 86-96, 32p.
19. Bakun, W. H., J. Bredehoeft, R. O. Burford, W. L. Ellsworth, M. J. S. Johnston, L. M. Jones, A. G. Lindh, C. Mortensen, E. Roelofts, S. Schulz, P. Segall, and W. Thatcher, 1986, Parkfield earthquake prediction scenarios and response plans, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 86-365, 53 pp.
20. Norris, R., L. M. Jones, and L. K. Hutton, 1986, The Southern California Network Bulletin, July-December, 1985 U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 86-337, 33 pp.
21. Jones, L. M., and E. Hauksson, 1986, Evaluation of earthquake potential in southern California, in Proceedings of Conference XXXII; Workshop on Future Directions in Evaluating Earthquake Hazards in Southern California, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 86-401.
22. Jones, L. M., L. K. Hutton, D. D. Given, and C. R. Allen, 1986, The North Palm Springs, California, earthquake sequence of July 1986, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 76, 1830-1837.
23. Ziony, J. I., and L. M. Jones, 1989, Map showing late Quaternary faults and 1978-1984 seismicity of the Los Angeles region, California, U. S. Geological Survey Misc. Series Map MF-1964.
24. Given, D. D., Norris, R., Jones, L. M., Hutton, L. K., Johnson, C. E., and Hartzell, S., 1986, The Southern California Network Bulletin, January – June, 1986: U. S. Geological Surv. Open-file Rep. 86-598, 28 pp.
25. Jones, L. M., 1988, Focal mechanisms and the state of stress on the San Andreas fault in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 8869-8891.
26. Zoback, M. D., M. L. Zoback, V. S. Mount, J. Suppe, J. P. Eaton, J. H. Healy, D. Oppenheimer, P. Reasenberg, L. Jones, C. B. Raleigh, I. G. Wong, O. Scotti, and C. Wentworth, 1987, New evidence on the state of stress of the San Andreas Fault System, Science, 238, 1105-1111.
27. Given, D. D., L. K. Hutton, and L. M. Jones, 1987, The Southern California Network Bulletin, July – December, 1986, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 87-488.
28. Hauksson, E., L. Jones, T. Davis, L. K. Hutton, A. G. Brady, P. Reasenberg, A. J. Michael, R. F. Yerkes, P. Williams, G. Reagor, C. Stover, A. Bent, A. Shakal, E. Etheredge, R. Porcella, C. Bufe, M. Johnston, E. Cranswick, 1988, The Whittier Narrows earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, California, Science, 239, 1409-1412.
29. Jones, L. M., and E. Hauksson, 1988, The Whittier Narrows, California earthquake of October 1, 1987 – Seismology, Earthquake Spectra, 4, 43-54.
30. Hauksson, E., and Jones, L. M., 1988, The July 1986 Oceanside (ml=5.3) earthquake sequence in the Continental Borderland, southern California: Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 78, 1885-1906.
31. Given, D., K. Hutton, L. Stach and L. Jones, 1988, The Southern California Network Bulletin, January-June 1987, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 88-408.
32. Hutton, L. K., L. M. Jones, E. Hauksson, and D. D. Given, 1992, Seismotectonics of southern California, in Neotectonics of North America: Boulder, CO, Geol. Soc. Amer., Decade Map Volume 1, 133-152.
33. Magistrale, H., L. Jones, and H. Kanamori, 1989, The Superstition Hills, California, earthquakes of 24 November 1987, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 79, 239-251.
34. Jones, L. M. and P. A. Reasenberg, 1988, Real-time use of foreshocks for earthquake prediction in southern California, Proceeding of Workshop XLVI, The 7th U. S.-Japan Seminar on Earthquake Prediction, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Report 90-98, 151-157.
35. Reasenberg, P. A., and L. M. Jones, 1989, Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California, Science, 243, 1173-1176.
36. Hauksson, E. and L. M. Jones, 1989, The 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence in Los Angeles, southern California: Seismological and tectonic analysis, J. Geophys. Res., 94, 9569-9590.
37. Jones, L. M., and P. A. Reasenberg, 1989, A preliminary assessment of the recent increase in earthquake activity in the Los Angeles region, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 89-162.
38. Wald, L. A., and L. M. Jones, 1989, Leaping into CUSP: Local Earthquake Analysis Programs for CUSP Data, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 89-479.
39. Hill, D. P., J. P. Eaton, L. M. Jones, 1990, Seismicity of the San Andreas fault system: 1980-1986, in U. S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Paper 1515, The San Andreas Fault System, California, ed. R. E. Wallace, 115-151.
40. Given, D. D., L. Wald, L. M. Jones, and L. K. Hutton, 1989, The Southern California Network Bulletin, July – December 1987, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 89-323.
41. Jones, L. M., K. E. Sieh, E. Hauksson, and L. K. Hutton, 1990, The December 3, 1988 Pasadena, California earthquake: Evidence for strike-slip motion on the Raymond fault, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 80, 474-482.
42. Wald, L., D. Given, J. Mori, L. Jones, and K. Hutton, 1990, The Southern California Network Bulletin, January – December 1988, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 90-499.
43. Committee on Seismology, 1990, Panel on Regional Networks (A. C. Johnston, W. J. Arabasz, G. A. Bollinger, J. R. Filson, R. B. Herrmann, L. M. Jones, H. Kanamori), Assessing the Nation’s Earthquakes: The Health and Future of Regional Seismograph Networks, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 67 pp.
44. Wald, L., D. Given, L. Jones, and K. Hutton, 1990, The Southern California Network Bulletin, January – December 1989, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 90-483.
45. Hauksson, E., L. Jones, J. Mori, R. Clayton, T. Heaton, H. Kanamori, and D. Helmberger, 1991, Southern California Seismographic Network: Report to the U. S. Geological Survey, August 21, 1990, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 91-38, 68 pp.
46. Hauksson, E., and L. M. Jones, 1991, The 1988 and 1990 Upland earthquakes: Left-lateral faulting adjacent to the central Transverse Ranges, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 8143-8165.
47. Wald, L., K. Hutton, J. Mori, D. Given, and L. Jones, 1991, The Southern California Network Bulletin, January – December 1990, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-file Rep. 91-255.
48. Kisslinger, C., and L. M. Jones, 1991, Properties of aftershock sequences in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 11.947-11,958. Contribution: 10%
49. Agnew, D. C., and L. M. Jones, 1991, Prediction probabilities from foreshocks, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 11.959-11,971.
50. Jones, L. M., K. E. Sieh, D. C. Agnew, C. R. Allen, R. Bilham, M. Ghilarducci, B. Hager, E. Hauksson, K. Hudnut, D. Jackson, A. Sylvester, 1991, Short-term earthquake hazard assessment for the southern San Andreas fault, U. S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 91-32, 29 pp.
51. Bryant, A. S., and L. M. Jones, 1992, Anomalously deep earthquakes in the crust beneath the Ventura Basin, southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 437-447.
52. Jones, L. M., D. Morton, and E. Hauksson, 1991, The Sierra Madre earthquake of June 28, 1991: Seismology and geology, The Southern California Earthquake Bulletin, Spec. Bull. 1, Southern California Earthquake Preparedness Project, publ., 1-7.
53. Hauksson, E., K. Hutton, K. Douglass, and L. M. Jones, 1992, Earthquake Atlas of Southern California 1978 – 1990, in Engineering Geology Practice in Southern California, ed. By R. Proctor and B. W. Pipkin, Association of Engineering Geologists, Belmont, CA., p. 181-192.
54. Hutton, L. Katherine, and L. M. Jones, 1993, Local magnitudes and apparent variations in seismicity rates in southern California, in press, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
55. Kanamori, H., J. Mori, E. Hauksson, T. H. Heaton, L. K. Hutton, and L. M. Jones, 1993, Determination of earthquake energy release and ML using TERRAscope, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 83, 330-346.
56. Jones, L. M., E. Hauksson, and J. Mori, 1993. The Landers earthquake: Preliminary instrumental results, Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 23, 200-208. Approved 9/1992. Contribution 60%.
57. Mori, J., K. Hudnut, L. Jones, E. Hauksson, and L. K. Hutton, 1992. Rapid scientific response to the Landers earthquake, Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 73, 417-419.
58. Sieh, K., L. M. Jones, E. Hauksson, K. Hudnut, D. Eberhart-Phillips, T. Heaton, S. Hough, K. Hutton, H. Kanamori, A. Lilje, Scott Lindvall, Sally F. McGill, James Mori, Charles Rubin, James Spotila, Joann Stock, Hong Kie Thio, Jerome Treiman, Brian Wernicke, Judith Zachariasen, 1993. Near-field investigations of the Landers earthquake sequence, April-July, 1992, Science, 260, 171-176.
59. Hill, D., et al. (inc. L. M. Jones), Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude 7.3 Landers, California earthquake, Science, 260, 1617-1623, 1993. 60. Jones, L. M., 1994, Foreshocks, aftershocks and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the Landers earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 84, 892-899.
61. Reasenberg, P.A., and L. M. Jones, 1994, Earthquake Aftershocks: Update, Science, 265, 1251-1252.
62. Scientists of the USGS and SCEC, 1994, The magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake of January 17, 1994, Science, 266, 389-397.
63. Hauksson, E., and L. M. Jones, 1994, The Northridge, California, earthquake of January 17, 1994, and its aftershocks, Earthquakes and Volcanoes, 25, 18-30.
64. Hauksson, E., and L. M. Jones, 1995, The Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994 Reconnaissance Report: Seismology, Earthquake Spectra, Supplement C to Vol. 11.
65. Hauksson, E., L. Jones, and K. Hutton, 1995, The 1994 Northridge earthquake sequence in Califor¬nia: Seismological and tectonic aspects, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 12,335-12,356.
66. Jones, L. M., 1995, Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country, SCEC Spec. Publ..
67. Hauksson, E., K. Hutton, H. Kanamori, L. Jones, J. Mori, S. Hough, and, G. Roquemore, 1995, Preliminary report on the 1995 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in eastern California, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66, 54-60.
68. Jones, L. M., and P. Reasenberg, 1996, Some Facts about Aftershocks to Large Earthquakes in California, USGS Open-file Rep. 96-266, 4 pp., http://www-socal.wr.usgs.gov/jones/after-rates.html,
69. Jones, L. M. and E. Hauksson, 1997, The seismic cycle: Precursor or response? Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 469-472.
70. Hough, S., and L. M. Jones, 1997, Aftershocks: Are they earthquakes or afterthoughts, EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 78, 505-507.
71. Michael, A., and L. Jones, 1998, A re-evaluation of the seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer. 88, 117–130.
72. Mori, J., H. Kanamori, J. Davis, E.. Hauksson, R. Clayton, T. Heaton, L. Jones, and A. Shakal, and R. Porcella, 1998, Major improvements in progress for southern California earthquake monitoring, EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 79, 217, 221.
73. U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium Observer Panel (W. Iwan, W. Hall, L. Jones, S. Masaki-Schatz, P. Somerville, T. Tobin), 1998, Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 64 pp.
74. Wald, L., L. Jones, S. Schwarz and L. K. Hutton, 1998, The 1997 Southern California Seismic Network Bulletin, Seismol. Res. Lett., 69, 532–549.
75. Board On Natural Disasters (inc. L. Jones), 1999, Reducing Disaster Losses Through Better Information, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 61 pp.
76. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and Calif. Div. of Mines and Geology, Preliminary Report on the 16 October 1999 M 7.1 Hector Mine, California, Earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett. 71, 11-23, 2000.
77. Jones, L. M., True Confessions from a Magnitude-Weary Seismologist, 2000, Seismol. Res. Lett., 71, 395-396.
78. dePolo, Craig M. L. M. Jones, D. M. dePolo, S. Tingley, 2000, Living with earthquakes in Nevada; a Nevadan's guide to preparing for, surviving, and recovering from an earthquake, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, Report: 27, 36 pp.,
79. Field, N., L. M. Jones, T. Jordan, M. Benthien, and L. Wald, 2001, Earthquake shaking; finding the “hotspots”, U. S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet, 0001-01, 2 pp.
80. Hauksson, E., P. Small, K. Hafner, R. Busby, R. Clayton, J. Goltz, T. Heaton, K. Hutton, H. Kanamori, J. Polet, D. Given, L. M. Jones, and D. Wald, Southern California Seismic Network: Caltech/USGS Element of TriNet 1997-2001, Seism. Res. Lett. 72, 697-711, 2001
81. Hauksson, E., L. M. Jones, K. Hutton, The 1999 Mw7.1 Hector Mine, California earthquake sequence: complex conjugate strike-slip faulting, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.,92, 1154-1170, 2002.
82. Hauksson, E., L. M. Jones, S. Perry, K. Hutton, Emerging from the Stress shadow of the 1992 Mw7.3 Landers southern California earthquake? A preliminary assessment, to Seism. Res. Lett.73, 33-38, 2002.
83. Graizer, V., A. Shakal, C. Scrivner, E. Hauksson, J. Polet, L. Jones, TriNet strong-motion data from the M7.1 Hector Mine, California of October, 16, 1999, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92, 1525-1542, 2002.
84. Hauksson, E., L.M. Jones, A. Shakal, TriNet, Int'l. Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology: Centennial publication of the Intl'. Assn. Of Seism. and Physics of the Earth's Interior, P. Jennings, H. Kanamori, and W. Lee (eds), in press, 2003.
85. Donna Eberhart-Phillips, Peter J. Haeussler, Jeffrey T. Freymueller, Arthur D. Frankel, Charles M. Rubin, Patricia Craw, Natalia A. Ratchkovski, Greg Anderson, Gary A. Carver, Anthony J. Crone, Timothy E. Dawson, Hilary Fletcher, Roger Hansen, Edwin L. Harp, Ruth A. Harris, David P. Hill, Sigrún Hreinsdóttir, Randall W. Jibson, Lucile M. Jones, Robert Kayen, David K. Keefer, Christopher F. Larsen, Seth C. Moran, Stephen F. Personius, George Plafker, Brian Sherrod, Kerry Sieh, Nicholas Sitar, and Wesley K. Wallace, The 2002 Denali Fault Earthquake, Alaska: A Large Magnitude, Slip-Partitioned Event, Science, May 16, 2003, 1113-1118.
86. Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, No. B6, 2318
87. California Seismic Safety Commission Research Committee, (L. Jones, chair), 2004, A Safer, More Resilient California: The State Plan for Earthquake Research, 14 pp., CSSC 04-01.
88. California Seismic Safety Commission, 2004, Findings and Recommendations from the San Simeon Earthquake of December 22, 2003, 10 pp., CSSC 04-02.
89. Jones, L. M., and M. Benthien, 2004, Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country, SCEC Spec. Publ.
90. Gerstenberger, Matt, Wiemer, Stefan, and Jones, Lucy, 2004, Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California: a new mapping tool: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2004-1390.
91. California Seismic Safety Commission Ad Hoc Committee on School Safety (L. Jones, chair), 2004, Seismic Safety in California’s Schools: Findings and Recommendations on Seismic Safety Policies and Requirements For Public, Private and Charter Schools, 12 pp., CSSC 04-04
92. Gerstenberger, M., S. Wiemer, L. Jones, and P. Reasenberg, 2005, Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes, Nature, May 19, 859.
93. California Seismic Safety Commission Ad Hoc Committee on Tsunami Safety (L. Jones, chair), 2006, The Tsunami Threat to California, 24 pp., CSSC 05-03,
94. Lucy Jones, Richard Bernknopf, Susan Cannon, Len Gaydos, Jon Keeley, Monica Kohler, Homa Lee, Daniel Ponti, Stephanie Ross, Steven Schwarzbach, Michael Shulters, A. Wesley Ward, Anne Wein, 2007, Increasing Resiliency to Natural Disasters: A Strategic Plan for the Multi-hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, USGS Open file Report 2007-1255, 31 pp.
95. Perry, Suzanne, Cox, Dale, Jones, Lucile, Bernknopf, Richard, Goltz, James, Hudnut, Kenneth, Mileti, Dennis, Ponti, Daniel, Porter, Keith, Reichle, Michael, Seligson, Hope, Shoaf, Kimberley, Treiman, Jerry, and Wein, Anne, 2008, The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario; a story that southern Californians are writing: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1324 and California Geological Survey Special Report 207, 16 pp. [http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/].
96. Jones, Lucile M., Bernknopf, Richard, Cox, Dale, Goltz, James, Hudnut, Kenneth, Mileti, Dennis, Perry, Suzanne, Ponti, Daniel, Porter, Keith, Reichle, Michael, Seligson, Hope, Shoaf, Kimberley, Treiman, Jerry, and Wein, Anne, 2008, The ShakeOut Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25 [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/].
My Science Topics
My USGS Science Strategy AreasA National Hazard, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program
There is an urgent need to transform the way that southern Californians think - and act – about natural disasters, beginning with earthquakes. There will always be natural disasters, and we cannot change their occurrence. What we can change is how we prepare for them - in our homes, our schools, our businesses, and our communities. If we instead maintain the status quo, then one of these disasters will become a catastrophe, and cripple the long-term economic and social stability of our society.
In 2007, I helped launch a new project within the United States Geological Survey, the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), to show how science can improve society’s resiliency. The MHDP defines success by how others use scientific information and we started by doing a lot of talking and listening with educators, planners, and first responders, to better understand what they want from scientists that they have not been getting. For me, this is the culmination of a career spent trying to do science that people needed and working with people that are interested in our results. I’ve been outside the scientific comfort zone, seeing how people use and misuse scientific information. I have discovered there is more misuse than use, which means we aren’t communicating correctly.
The first MHDP public product is the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, which was released on May 5, 2008. We united a group of experts that do not usually work together – earthquake scientists and engineers with business and utility owners, educators and emergency responders, sociologists and economists. This group’s mission has been to create a plausible earthquake disaster scenario for planning purposes, to examine the impacts of a giant southern California earthquake on the San Andreas fault, from seconds to decades after the event. We have focused on identifying “low hanging fruit” – changes we can make before the event that are relatively easy and inexpensive to accomplish, which will have enormous consequences in reducing casualties and losses after the event.
The ShakeOut Scenario is different from previous research activities in that the analysis is taken through the impact of the earthquake on our social and economic systems. Because of the success of building codes in southern California, relatively few people will die in the coming large earthquake. However, the social and financial strain on our society will be so great that we imperil the existence of the community itself. This type of systemic failure is the result of complex interaction of many failures in many parts of the society. Whether or not a large earthquake will be our Katrina – or worse! - will depend on the resiliency of our social systems, which are the sum of millions of personal decisions that we want to affect through the ShakeOut.
Ultimately, the goal is to establish a resilient society, and this transformation requires concerted and repeated effort over many years – doing the best science we can and getting our messages to the community in ways that they will be truly heard, used, and applied.
Contact InformationLucile Jones
525 & 535 S. Wilson St.
Pasadena, CA 91106-3212
626-583-6798 - Fax
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